#cdnpoli

Alberta polling analysis from cdnpo.li, a project by Erik Partridge.

Last updated Sunday, April 15th, 2019 at 11:21EST. Français.



If the Alberta election were today...


UCP - 47.7% | 60 seats
New Democrats38.3% | 27 seats
Alberta Party8.4% | 0 seats
Freedom Conservative3.3% | 0 seats
Liberals2.5% | 0 seats

Model v0.1-040619. Totals may not add to 100%


See the federal analysis.


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Methodology

The model is developed based on historical data from 2011 to the present day. At the moment, no future forecasting is made. If you wish to use this data as a prediction, please recognize that this accepts the freshness hypothesis, which would assume the latest polls are the best predictors of the future. This may not be the best hypothesis.


The support percentages are based on the exponential weighted moving average of recent polling history. This weights the most recent polls substantially, and the older the poll, the exponentially weaker its impact on the forecast.


This is a passion project—I am a data scientist, but I do not specialize in polling. I provide no warranties about this data, and am thrilled to hear your feedback. All the data used in creating these models can be found on GitHub.