#cdnpoli

Canadian polling analysis from cdnpo.li, a project by Erik Partridge.

Last updated Sunday, June 9th, 2019 at 10:04EST. Français.



We believe that on October 21st, support will look like...


Conservatives - 34.8%
Liberals30.6%
New Democrats15.8%
Greens10.8%
Bloc Québecois4.2%
Other3.8%

Model v0.3a. Totals may not add to 100%


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Methodology

The model is developed based on historical data from 2006 to the present day. Future forecasting is made on the grounds that existing trends in the dataset based on popularity, as well as approximate cycles of popularity will continue, or present themsevles again. This may not be the best hypothesis.


The support percentages are based on a logistic and linear mapping of the data in correlation with trends of support for each party over time on both micro and macro bases.


One ground rule we set is that polls which only contain partially new data (i.e. Nanos Research's) only have the fresh data included. A poll with a sample size of 1,000 with only 333 new responses will be weighted as 333 responses.


This is a passion project—I am a data scientist, but I do not specialize in polling. I provide no warranties about this data, and am thrilled to hear your feedback. All the data used in creating these models can be found on GitHub.